Why You Should Never Take Insurance in Blackjack

"Understanding the Risks: Why Taking Insurance in Blackjack May Not Be the Best Bet"

As a new blackjack player, you're likely focused on mastering basic strategy charts, and that's exactly where your focus should be. But at some point, you’ll encounter a situation that seems to throw a wrench in your plans: the dealer's upcard is an Ace, and they ask, "Insurance?"

This optional bet seems like a smart way to protect your hand, but in reality, it's one of the worst bets you can make at the blackjack table. While it might feel tempting to "insure" yourself against a dealer's blackjack, the numbers tell a very different story.

What Exactly is the Insurance Bet?

The insurance bet is a side bet offered when the dealer's upcard is an Ace. It is an independent wager, separate from your main hand, that pays out if the dealer's hole card is a 10-value card (a 10, Jack, Queen, or King), giving them a blackjack.

• You can bet up to half of your original wager.

• The insurance bet pays out at 2:1 odds.

• If the dealer does not have a blackjack, you lose your insurance bet, and the round continues as normal.

It seems logical, right? If you win, you recoup some of your losses from your main hand. But the problem isn't the concept; it's the math.

The Simple Math That Proves It's a Bad Bet

To understand why insurance is a losing bet, let's look at the numbers. In a standard 52-card deck, there are:

• 16 cards with a value of 10 (four 10s, four Jacks, four Queens, and four Kings).

• 36 cards without a value of 10.

  
  

When the dealer has an Ace showing, the chance that their next card will be a 10 is 16 out of 52, or approximately 30.77%.

For insurance to be a fair bet, it should pay out based on these odds. If you bet €10 on insurance, you would need to be paid more than 2:1 to break even in the long run. Since the bet only pays 2:1, it has a built-in house edge of approximately 7.7%, making it one of the worst bets on the table. In a multi-deck game, that house edge is still a staggering 5.9% to 7.4%. You are simply betting against the odds. Over time, you will lose far more insurance bets than you will win.

An Analogy for the Odds

Imagine a friend offers you a bet: you pay them €1, and if they flip a coin and it lands on heads, they pay you €2. If it lands on tails, you get nothing. You'd likely take that bet, because the payout (2:1) matches the odds (50/50).

Now, imagine that instead of a coin, they are hiding a six-sided die, and they tell you that if it lands on a 1 or a 2, they will pay you €2. If it lands on a 3, 4, 5, or 6, you lose. The odds are against you (only 2 out of 6 sides are winners), but they are still only offering a 2:1 payout. This is essentially what the insurance bet is: a game where the payout doesn't come close to matching the true odds.

The "Even Money" Trap

This is a common situation that fools many players. If you are dealt a blackjack and the dealer's upcard is an Ace, the dealer will ask, "Even money?"

Taking "even money" is essentially the same as taking an insurance bet. The dealer offers to pay you 1:1 on your blackjack immediately, guaranteeing you a win before they check their hole card.

• Your Blackjack Payout: Your blackjack is normally paid at 3:2 odds.

• Even Money Payout: Even money pays 1:1.

While a guaranteed win feels good, you are sacrificing a better payout. Your goal is to maximize your winnings. Taking the even money payout means you are giving up the chance to get a 3:2 payout in exchange for a guaranteed 1:1. The only way taking even money is a good idea is if the dealer has a blackjack, which, as we saw, is a losing bet in the long run.

The Exception to the Rule

The only time it is mathematically correct to take the insurance bet is if you are an expert card counter and the deck has a high concentration of 10-value cards. But for the average player, this scenario is so rare and requires such a specific skill set that it should not be considered.

What to Do Instead

When the dealer's upcard is an Ace and they offer insurance, there is only one correct response.

Just say no.

Simply decline the bet and proceed with playing your hand according to the basic strategy chart. This is the single best decision you can make in this situation to minimize the house edge.

Conclusion

Insurance is a sucker bet designed to prey on a player's fear of the dealer having a blackjack. By understanding the simple math behind the bet, you can avoid this common mistake. Always remember that your best strategy is to stick to the basic strategy chart, which is designed to minimize the house edge and maximize your chances of winning in the long run.